Hi guys, I’m writing this because I got under a lot of fire for reporting someone (who got banned as a consequence). I want to respond to this in an as-calm-as-possible manner because I think we should respect each other in this forum and talk about facts rather than reacting in blunt opposition.
Those who know me will most likely vouch for me as being a straight-up guy who is willing to admit mistakes if he made any. I will now tell you why I am convinced that I wasn’t mistaken reporting someone who I believe to be a cheater.
I will also tell you how probable it is to get a certain type of pet, and why this gives me reason to believe somebody is not legit.
Reporting
Reporting someone as a cheater is everyone’s right here in the forum. I have been reported once already as well (by a cheater ironically). If somebody thinks that there is something wrong about an IG profile he can report said IGN.
Now I have seen quite a lot reports of people who weren’t actual cheaters. Sometimes it is obvious that they aren’t, sometimes they get actually checked and not banned - that is why we have mods to check if they are cheaters or not !
I don’t have this responsibility, and I don’t decide. I am certain that the mods do not ban anyone without a solid reason. They might be paying customers after all.
So I don’t understand people attacking me now just because I reported someone. They consequently should attack everybody then who reports someone, but apparently they don’t - the act of reporting can’t be hold against me. If I report someone I am stating that I think someone is a cheater, not that I know.
Not to forget that I report only if I do have strong reasons to believe that someone is not legit. And that a mod actually checks then if I was right or wrong to think that.
Hence if I report someone and that person gets banned, you know that a mod checked out the profile, saw something that didn’t look right and decided that that person is a cheater. So if I’m being attacked for correctly reporting a cheater (verified by an independent judge) doesn’t it shine an unpleasant light on the people attacking me? They defend a cheater after all.
This time even someone who got banned before.
If someone is wrongly banned, I’m sure he has enough info to back his case and get reinstated.
Perfect Pet Probability
Most people defending eternal pets of certain affix combinations have either not understood the matter, or never been hunting for legend or eternal pets. Let me state some facts about the pets I’ve found so far and how I’ve found them. I will use them later to calculate some numbers which hopefully give you something to think about.
- I found 66 legend pets and
- 4 eternal pets so far.
- Per 1 hour monster spawn I find roughly 2-3 legend pets, one of which comes from the Enslaver Feat.
- I total around 160-180 pets per 1 hour monster spawn, with 1012% Luck and Eternalized (7).
- I’ve never found a pet with more than 3 duel-worthy epic affixes.
- None of my eternal pets is of any duel use.
Most Useful/Used Epic PvP Affixes
- Bleed DMG%
- HP%
- AR%
- Crit%
- Crit DMG%
- Luck%
- ED+
- HP+
- AR+
There are a total of exactly 150 epic affixes available on pets.
Mathematics
To calculate any probabilities, we need the Hypergeometric distribution:
The formula of interest is
where N = 150 is the total number of affixes, n = 5 is the number of epic affixes on our pet (number of draws), K is the number of successful possibilities (K = 9 “good” epic affixes on the list above) and k the number of “good” epic affixes on our pet.
Pet with 5 good epic affixes
Now we can calculate the probability that a legend pet has k = 5 good affixes on drop:
- (9 over 5) * (150 - 9 over 5 - 5) / (150 over 5) = 2.13e-7
- = 0.0000213%,
- or roughly one legend pet out of 4,700,000 will have 5 good affixes.
Playtime for an eternal pet with 5 good epic affixes
From the empirical numbers above:
- Chance to get an eternal pet if a legend pet drops is 4/(66 + 4) = 4/70.
- 2.5 legend pets per hour of monster spawn yields one legend pet per 60/2.5 = 24 minutes of monster spawn.
The average time you need to find one eternal pet with 5 good epic affixes with monster spawn is therefore:
- 24 min * 4,700,000 * 70/4 = 32,900,000 hours!!!
A human being that lives 80 years spends only 700,000 hours on this planet!! And needs to eat, sleep, wash clothes…
And I haven’t even touched the probability for a useful set on said pet.
Cheater Probability
Now if you still believe eternal pets with more than three useful PvP affixes are generally legit I honestly doubt you understood any of the above. Cheaters have become more intelligent, normally setting one eternal pet affix to something only semi-useful; but even with four useful epic PvP affixes it is damn right impossible to get such a pet.
I could calculate the probability now that you are a cheater yourself if you attack me for reporting such a pet, but I won’t. You know the odds.