Reporting <-> Perfect Pet Probability <-> Cheater Probability

Hi guys, I’m writing this because I got under a lot of fire for reporting someone (who got banned as a consequence). I want to respond to this in an as-calm-as-possible manner because I think we should respect each other in this forum and talk about facts rather than reacting in blunt opposition.
Those who know me will most likely vouch for me as being a straight-up guy who is willing to admit mistakes if he made any. I will now tell you why I am convinced that I wasn’t mistaken reporting someone who I believe to be a cheater.
I will also tell you how probable it is to get a certain type of pet, and why this gives me reason to believe somebody is not legit.


Reporting

Reporting someone as a cheater is everyone’s right here in the forum. I have been reported once already as well (by a cheater ironically). If somebody thinks that there is something wrong about an IG profile he can report said IGN.
Now I have seen quite a lot reports of people who weren’t actual cheaters. Sometimes it is obvious that they aren’t, sometimes they get actually checked and not banned - that is why we have mods to check if they are cheaters or not !
I don’t have this responsibility, and I don’t decide. I am certain that the mods do not ban anyone without a solid reason. They might be paying customers after all.
So I don’t understand people attacking me now just because I reported someone. They consequently should attack everybody then who reports someone, but apparently they don’t - the act of reporting can’t be hold against me. If I report someone I am stating that I think someone is a cheater, not that I know.

Not to forget that I report only if I do have strong reasons to believe that someone is not legit. And that a mod actually checks then if I was right or wrong to think that.

Hence if I report someone and that person gets banned, you know that a mod checked out the profile, saw something that didn’t look right and decided that that person is a cheater. So if I’m being attacked for correctly reporting a cheater (verified by an independent judge) doesn’t it shine an unpleasant light on the people attacking me? They defend a cheater after all.

This time even someone who got banned before.

If someone is wrongly banned, I’m sure he has enough info to back his case and get reinstated.


Perfect Pet Probability

Most people defending eternal pets of certain affix combinations have either not understood the matter, or never been hunting for legend or eternal pets. Let me state some facts about the pets I’ve found so far and how I’ve found them. I will use them later to calculate some numbers which hopefully give you something to think about.

  • I found 66 legend pets and
  • 4 eternal pets so far.
  • Per 1 hour monster spawn I find roughly 2-3 legend pets, one of which comes from the Enslaver Feat.
  • I total around 160-180 pets per 1 hour monster spawn, with 1012% Luck and Eternalized (7).
  • I’ve never found a pet with more than 3 duel-worthy epic affixes.
  • None of my eternal pets is of any duel use.

Most Useful/Used Epic PvP Affixes

  • Bleed DMG%
  • HP%
  • AR%
  • Crit%
  • Crit DMG%
  • Luck%
  • ED+
  • HP+
  • AR+

There are a total of exactly 150 epic affixes available on pets.

Mathematics

To calculate any probabilities, we need the Hypergeometric distribution:

The formula of interest is

where N = 150 is the total number of affixes, n = 5 is the number of epic affixes on our pet (number of draws), K is the number of successful possibilities (K = 9 “good” epic affixes on the list above) and k the number of “good” epic affixes on our pet.

Pet with 5 good epic affixes

Now we can calculate the probability that a legend pet has k = 5 good affixes on drop:

  • (9 over 5) * (150 - 9 over 5 - 5) / (150 over 5) = 2.13e-7
    • = 0.0000213%,
    • or roughly one legend pet out of 4,700,000 will have 5 good affixes.

Playtime for an eternal pet with 5 good epic affixes

From the empirical numbers above:

  • Chance to get an eternal pet if a legend pet drops is 4/(66 + 4) = 4/70.
  • 2.5 legend pets per hour of monster spawn yields one legend pet per 60/2.5 = 24 minutes of monster spawn.

The average time you need to find one eternal pet with 5 good epic affixes with monster spawn is therefore:

  • 24 min * 4,700,000 * 70/4 = 32,900,000 hours!!!

A human being that lives 80 years spends only 700,000 hours on this planet!! And needs to eat, sleep, wash clothes…

And I haven’t even touched the probability for a useful set on said pet.


Cheater Probability

Now if you still believe eternal pets with more than three useful PvP affixes are generally legit I honestly doubt you understood any of the above. Cheaters have become more intelligent, normally setting one eternal pet affix to something only semi-useful; but even with four useful epic PvP affixes it is damn right impossible to get such a pet.

I could calculate the probability now that you are a cheater yourself if you attack me for reporting such a pet, but I won’t. You know the odds.

5 Likes

Yup. Agreed :thumbsup: .

1 Like

That is a good post with rationale and supporting data. Let’s start by establishing that @Midlumer is a good person with only noble intentions. There have been so many who are in a very specific cheater group now who have secrets to reroll eternals, modify pets and do so many things that irritate the other 99% legitimate players, all while stating the legitimate players are the ‘hahahaters’. While a majority of the review requests are accurate, some are wrong and the dev fixes any wrongdoings. In the case being referenced, 5 of the 6 affixes could be considered the supposed gold standard by cheaters. I do not believe @Midlumer knew Erase had been reported/banned back in March but the dev fixed it and his account. We are all human and we all make mistakes. This is no different. I tend to stay out of these discussions but needed to throw a lifeline.

2 Likes

http://forums.dungeon-quest.com/t/reporting-perfect-pet-probability-cheater-probability/15966/3?u=midlumer

Feeling like Don Quichotte. Yep I did invent all of it, made it up to impress and look important. None of it is true.

Thanks @Mr_Scooty!

1 Like

Spot on.

1 Like

Thanks for this post. I’ve been hoping for this point to be remembered though the forums. It’s like when Mr Scooty made a post about the probability of such a perfect pet in terms of drops. Both posts prove the point :slight_smile: .

Dang. That’s an extreme amount of time and no human could even game in that lifetime, even with Biological Immortality medicine because they would get bored too easy and even without Immortality, it’s easy to get bored of hunting pets eventually let alone playing DQ itself.

That amount of hours is like 3755.7077626 years or 3 Millenias . That’s the odds. I can’t even imagine RNG luck with that amount of odds, even with 5 Million players. And that’s without the set affix being determined. I’d have thought millions of years.

2 Likes

Great topic, thanks @Midlumer for creating this. As many know I want to help the community and players by getting of these cheaters in the game especially in the arena. I’ll let the devs decide on Erase’s case. I completely agree with the numbers and amount of time you have to spend get those pet. The only thing that caught my attention is what are the “perfect affixes” for the eternal pet to be called “perfect”

Back in the days, we could obviously tell people are using edited perfect eternal pet because the affixes are to good and makes their build really strong.[quote=“Midlumer, post:1, topic:15966”]
Most Useful/Used Epic PvP Affixes

Bleed DMG%
HP%
AR%
Crit%
Crit DMG%
Luck%
ED+
HP+
AR+
[/quote]

All are correct. 100% agree.

Now, what happens, for example, the meta shifts, balancing, nerfs and updates are made after some time. What if on the next update they buff HP on hit and make it 1000/hit just like before. What if Buccaner gets a buff and Gold find% becomes good? Its not on your ist now, right? What if other affixes that is not on your list becomes fit for the meta on the next updates?

What if I have an eternal pet now, that I got in a legit way, that is not good for the pvp now but might be good for the future updates and I decide to build around it? Would that make me not a cheater now and a cheater then?

I’ll share @deathGG pet here as an example

This pet in not edited as it has a Set affix that is not very useful in the meta right now. Many will agree that they WOULD NOT use this pet in pvp right now. It clearly has potential deadly strike, armor, luck and depending on the build and class attack speed and astral could be useful, would you report him then?

This is my eternal pet, the only one i’ve got after playing the game in 2 years. Crappy aint it? A lot of affixes are not on your list of affixes good for pvp. But hell that 800 shock resist + 500 all resist can be useful. I can definitely create a build for pvp now to make use of this pet but it just wont be good. I’m sure you’re getting my point. What if after couple of updates, we got new affixes and new sets and this pet would fit the meta, would that make my pet edited then?

Lastly, lets look at @Erase pet, they way he got is a different story, ill leave it to the devs.
But lets look at why this is a cheaters pet. A cheater’s choice of affixes

-Name top players in pvp now or even on the previous patch uses Element Affix?
-You went ahead and did computation for the 5 epic affixes he has on his pet. What is the actual probability of getting an eternal pet with Elements? Is it possible? Yes, in fact very common you would almost get it if you were to get an eternal pet.
-Is Element very common most used/useful pet in PVP that cheaters would always have this on their build? No, noone would give up a very important 1 slot of Set affix to get Elements.
-By looking at this affixes many will agree that this is crappy for pvp. No flat values aside from 1400 armor.
-we didnt need crit chance before because we have coat weapon and coat weapon proc. No one was using bleed dmg after they introduced perseverance and nerfed fire. No one would use 50% armor when the meta was burst damage before.
-If you reported this pet back in version 2.3 this would not be considered as cheater’s pet.
But why are we reporting it now? Because it fits his build now?

Perfect example is The Immortal Build, a build that uses totally different affixes from the meta. Should we report players using eternal pet with affixes used in the immortal build?

If I use my eternal sera to fit my pvp build in the future would you report me then?

Reporting

It is everyone’s right to report players they suspect cheating. You made it sound like you’re basis of reporting him here is because he’s been banned before when in fact the devs verified his account and has proven that he is legit. Btw, he’s back in the normal league. We are not defending cheaters here or attacking you for reporting him. You just really made an intriguing report here with that kind of pet and tell how the guy is a cheater before…

Perfect Pet Probability

With the points I mentioned above,[quote=“Midlumer, post:1, topic:15966”]
(K = 9 “good” epic affixes on the list above)
[/quote]

This number is inaccurate if you consider all the possible builds, metas on 3 different classes used all throughout the versions of DQ. As the game improves more and more affixes will be useful in the arena, MP on hit could be considered good for manashield builds, MP regen, +20 skullshield…the list goes on. This is the flaw of your computation.

We were reporting players with 10K hp, 10k elem damage, 50%HP etc etc before because those are the pillars/core of pvp builds that have not changed over time no matter the meta and DQ version is.

Those are my two cents. I totally agree with your numbers but you didnt take into account that the meta changes, affixes gets nerf and buffs and we get new affixes and sets that may complement these not so useful affixes now.

2 Likes

Also the Rogue and Warrior I face in Div 1 Eternal they have Perfect’d Roll of Pet Affixes Eternal…

I don’t need to mention their names because I know who cheats are always the losers and afraid to lose and to lose and to loslos. :laughing:

Agreed I use it on pve. Lmao hahahaha

I have useful affixes on my pet. The thing that you call perfect rolled affixes. It has hp+, ed+, crit%, crit dmge, bleed dmge, and Hp regen. But the case is it is on my eternal slime. Does this make me a cheater?? I cant even reach eternal div3 last patch.

Being the perfect pet doesn’t need to be as mentioned. The perfect pet is the one that makes ur build become powerful. Even without +hp as long as it suits your build very much you can call it a perfect pet.

+1 brother! Iloveyou!

Hope i wont get ban if ill use this :frowning:

Also i believe that all those calculation of yours is trash when RNG trolls :wink:

I should get banned as well for getting only 2 Eternal Pet

So this is the thread that you want me to see about probability and pet hunting etc. I guess you really are smart on probability and calculations and i know how hard you hunt pets and play the game we all experience that, forgive me for laughing at your post its just that i cant believe someone as smart as you will say that erase pet is already a cheat because it fits with his build honestly i didnt think you will say that, as @f00kee said about the pet of @Erase he just thought of a build using that pet. Going to the top of the league with a build and a pet like that doesnt mean cheat man. Theres a one big difference between you and me about playing the game, i dont believe in probability i believe in Random Number Generated.

First of all thank you @f00kee for responding in a normal manner, one which allows an actual discussion. I will therefore respond to your points accordingly.

First thing to say (not to you, since you seem to understand the chances involved) is that the numbers I’ve derived are rock solid. They are a mathematical fact, and there are only three type of people who could possibly doubt them:

  • trolls,
  • people who are mentally not able to understand them (and hence don’t understand much about this game)
  • and cheaters.

Cheaters have by far the most interest in spreading doubt that the math is correct, that indeed such a pet is equivalent to winning the lottery. If they just repeat it often enough, legit people will start to think that it is possible to obtain such a pet and success with their biggest aim, appear legit themselves and not be banned.

Unfortunately they do success - leading to reinstatements or not resulting bans.

Yes, back in the day their pets were just too in-your-face strong. They have become smarter, taking less effective affixes, even ruining one affix completely for the sake of credibility. One great example for this are the eternal crystal Divinations popping up everywhere. They can be legitimately obtained after all. If they just give the affixes the right amount of flaws, people will think they spent 30k dust on them to get it.
It is hard to prove in this case if it is actually a cheated or a legit one; I rarely report those because it is quite hard to check if they are hacked or not. Legends found would be one measure - but is hardly conclusive.

That is a weak argument. Good epic PvP affixes have hardly changed in the past. And, maybe the most important argument against legit eternal pets: legend pets are in almost all of the cases way better, because you can control all 6 affixes. You will never have any unwanted affix with legend pets.

You have referenced several pets, let me comment on those. @deathGG’s pet has Ascendent on it, but I haven’t even talked about sets in my posts. Astral will never be good in PvP, Deadly Strike hardly is and ASpd isn’t as well. That tells me it is a very likely outcome for an eternal pet, it has a Talent affix, in total 2-3 rather useless affixes for PvP.

Your pet features with single resist, RCD and bleed chance 3 hardly useful epic affixes as well. So you can see how I can instantly tell that they are most likely legit.

As previously said, I only evaluated the epic affixes and not the set affix. I also stated why most now-a-day cheaters don’t go in-your-face obvious any more, they get banned rapidly. With 5 million downloads it is very very likely that this affix combination never dropped. If it dropped, it is also very unlikely that it droped for someone who knows enough about this game to play in Div1… There are maybe 100 people of those 5 million downloads who know enough about this game to reach Div1.
Last but not least, don’t you find it odd that it happens to be Spark, one of the two Shock pets? I mean I know that the passive Skill doesn’t do anything in the arena, but would a cheater know?

You see there is enough evidence to seriously doubt this is a legit pet. If, and that is a 1 to 80,000,000 legend pets if, it is indeed legit, I would be wrong. But even with that enormous if, I was right to report it and I don’t get people attacking me over this.

If they fit the build too perfectly, I highly encourage you to report them, yes!!! It is a game of chance, but the chance to have a specific build idea and an eternal pet to perfectly match it is as close to 0 as described in my first post.
It reeks if some out of control drop fits an idea too perfectly. I have played many years of Diablo II and now a lot of DQ. I know that it never happens. You’ll never have a drop that perfectly matches your build! It is a mathematical impossibility.

Unfortunately eternal pets don’t have a checksum. There are possibilities to encode if something really dropped or not, but since DQ was an offline game in the beginning this was not implemented.

As elaborated above, I don’t agree. If something fits a certain build too perfectly, chances are close to 1 that it is an edited item. I know from the experience of 15 gaming years and my mathematical education that it never happens in reality. Never.

Cheaters feed on the belief that such items are possible when in fact they are not. They might even drop 1-2 times in a game’s lifetime, but then it is so damn unlikely that it lands in the hand of a top 10 player it is ridiculous to believe that.

I can’t say with a 100% certainty that @Erase is a cheater. I can however say this with at least 99.9999% certainty. With some more 9s which I am too tired to calculate right now.

3 Likes

We are talking about eternal pets here.

There will never exist a perfect legit eternal pet for any build for any player. There will only ever exist good legit eternal pets for a certain type of build ;).

Your eternal pet looks legit of course. I am sorry if I offended you in any way for saying something about Allstar. I did never regard you or most other Allstar members as cheaters; there are however some black sheep everywhere. I respect your build very much - you should know that I do admire great DQ builds :slight_smile: makes me better with mine.

2 Likes

Thank you, forgiven and forgotten :slight_smile:.

It is alright to have a different opinion about @Erase of course. I have mine, others have theirs. I do think I have made enough arguments for my point of view, enough at least to not attack me for it.

That’s one and the same ;).

1 Like

How did you come into conclusion that there’s only 9 epic affixes that are most useful in the arena? How did you conclude that deadly strike is not good in pvp? do you have the data that shows what people use in the arena? How did you conclude that the affixes you did not list are not used by players.

It seems that you strictly rely on numbers when you made your computations yet the data that you’ve used to determine that there’s only 9 useful/most used affixes for pvp came from your experience and knowledge of the game. Hence, it makes it flawed.

Ill make @Mr_Scooty pet here as an example.

The only affix here that may not be useful is Empower. And we could say I kept 1 affix that is not useful to make it not obvious that this is an edited pet. All of the affixes and Set affixes would be good for pvp.

Now, based on your computation, having only 9 good affixes in the arena. Mr. Scooty should’ve never gotten this pet because it takes 33 Million hours to get a pet like this. However, we all know that he already got this pet in a legit way.

Would you report Mr.Scooty for having this pet becuase he is a 99.999999% cheater based on your computation?

The possibility of having this pets greatly increases and becomes realistically possible when you increase the value of K in your formula. Which goes back to my previous point that looks like mostly from personal knowledge and experience of the game and did not come from an actual data.

How about this


This is my first eternal pet, I got this pet after following @Mr_Scooty advice…